When The Hammer Falls

Why did America choose now to bomb Iran?

With the bombing of the three nuclear production areas in Iran, the USA has carried out what many have seen as an unprecedented act: Initiating and committing to a physical conflict with Iran. In the aftermath of Operation Midnight Hammer, The Vice President of the USA, J.D. Vance went to great pains to publicly assure his country that they were NOT ‘at war with Iran’, only with the nuclear weapon producing capability. He asserted that the USA was NOT at all interested in regime change in Iran, only in ensuring the regime did not have a nuclear weapon. Vance assured the MAGA support base that the USA had definitely NOT started a foreign war as that would go against their key election promise to stop all American involvement in foreign wars. Only for his President to completely undermine these statements some hours later with this:

There’s also the fact that there has been not one shred of intelligence declared to justify the strikes. In fact, quite the opposite seems to be the case. Public figures routinely given classified briefings on Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities have openly stated that there has been nothing in the past 18 months that has given the impression that Iran has made any significant progress in advancing the weapon’s progress. President Trump himself, when making initial comments last week about taking physical action against Iran, actually stated that his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was wrong in her assessment that Iran wasn’t close to having a nuclear weapon.

So, the person whose job it is to collect, analyse, assess, disseminate, and exploit all the intelligence from all the intelligence collection agencies in America got it wrong? It was very telling that, post-bombing, J.D. Vance, when questioned about this, stated that, yes, Trump had said that the DNI was wrong and that, while she might have been right, sometimes you have to go on your instincts, you know?

Flying seven B-2 bombers 18 hours (as well as fighter escorts, surveillance, and tankers), multiple refuelling in the air, to bomb a hostile nation, with Tomahawk missiles from a US submarine assisting, based on a ‘gut feeling’? That is a very, very bold call to carry out on instincts.

But look, if I’m being honest here, I’m not shedding any tears for the bombing of Iran’s nuclear/military locations. This vile regime has been the world leader in state-sponsored terrorism for decades. Their proxies which include Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, have delivered death and destruction on behalf of their masters in Tehran with a chutzpah bordering on impunity. During the second war in Iraq, soldiers from the UK and US predominantly, suddenly found that IED attacks were far more lethal than previously, resulting in higher mortality rates. Eventually, it was discovered that the Iranians had been training and supplying Iraqi militias with EFPs; Explosively Formed Penetrators, a type of shaped charge weapon that uses explosives to propel a metal disc into a projectile, capable of penetrating armour at a significant standoff distance. Iran was also training insurgents in Afghanistan in how to make more lethal IEDs as well as providing safe havens for senior Taliban commanders. And of course, there is their core tenet of wiping the nation of Israel from the face of the earth, something they’ve dedicated their entire existence into achieving.

Billboard in Tel Aviv last week

The image above shows a billboard in Tel Aviv requesting Trump finish what Israel started with their attacks on Iran. Israel has a very close relationship with the USA and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, has been working hard to retain that relationship with the Trump administration. And while Israel’s strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets were very successful, they lacked the ordnances needed to penetrate the deep underground sites. Ordnances which the Americans have. But with an administration who campaigned heavily on ‘no foreign wars’, how could America be convinced to finish the job Israel began? In reality, Israel didn’t need to convince America, only its President.

And convince him they did.

At some point, the real reason for Trump committing America to this conflict will come out, but at the moment we just have to accept the official party line that it was ‘just cos it felt right’. Which I totally understand as I once won thirty-five quid on ‘Commando Boy’ at the three-fifteen at Chepstow, because it just felt right to chance a cheeky fiver on a 7-1 outsider. But with President Trump, this might actually be a whole lot closer to the truth than we want to believe. He is renowned for acting on his current mood and feelings when deciding how to deal with the matter at hand. I am, however, interested to see what other theories are floating around the ether and, for your interest and enjoyment, have listed some here:

• 1. Kompromat: Trump acted now out of self-preservation as Netanyahu was going to release footage and recordings of Trump from the Epstein Files. As Epstein was a Mossad asset collecting intel on America’s great and good behaving at their very worst, Netanyahu used this threat to convince Trump to commit to bomb Iran. This is also why, even with Trump acolytes in key positions at the FBI and DoJ, there has still been no release of the contents of the Epstein Files.

• 2. Distraction. By any metric, the American economy is tanking with even the dollar taking a pounding. Stock markets, Bond market, unemployment, national debt, international trade, all bad news and getting worse. Also, his birthday parade was an unmitigated disaster and a huge blow to his ego, with not even 10% of the anticipated crowds showing up. The ‘No Kings’ protest across the USA however, drew millions of people on to the streets to voice their displeasure with the Trump regime. Not a good look for a president who measures his success by visual demonstrations of his popularity, and rants at any media reporting which dares challenge his perceptions. So, a good punch-up with Johnny Foreigner is just the thing to take the pesky media attention away from the problems at home.

• 3. Lobbying from the Defense industry: With Trump’s ill-fated tariffs causing mayhem in international trade, one of the largest sectors affected is the Defense industry in the USA. Companies such as Lockheed Martin, RTX, General Dynamics, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman. In 2022, these five companies alone secured over $118 billion in contracts. Due to the random and uncertain nature of Trump’s tariffs, many nations have cancelled giant contracts with these companies, seeking suppliers from other countries with more stable trade conditions. The military-industrial complex in the US is inherently tied to, and affecting of, public policy. It has powerful lobbyists and indeed, many politicians from both sides of the divide own significant shares in these companies. And these companies don’t make their money when the nations of the world are holding hands around the campfire singing Kumbaya. Nope, as we saw with Iraq and Afghanistan, a good old bombs ‘n bullets dust-up is where the profits really start coming in.

• 4. Because it looked good on TV: Those close to Trump and his administration have commented about how awestruck he was with Israel’s strikes and attacks on Iran. He was said to have been riveted by the Fox News coverage of the operation and openly stated how good the attacks were playing out on TV. His advisers, recognising the potential for negative press as Trump had no forewarning of the operation, suggested he weigh in with some social media posts hinting that he had been aware and gave his blessing for the operation to go ahead. Trump being Trump however, took it one step further and after initially stating that he had supported it, a short time later claimed credit for actual involvement. Israel, rather than being angry at this ‘Walt’ wrapping himself in the glory of their bold and daring operation, suggested Mr Trump should finish the job as only he could. That he could truly make history, bring everlasting peace to the Middle East, and win a Nobel Peace Prize all before Thanksgiving turkey is served. That he was the only person in the world capable of such a bold, daring decision. And the rest, as they say, is history.

In my opinion, and just my opinion, I think option 4 probably holds the most weight for me. This is a man who doesn’t read, but avidly watches Fox News to inform him of current events. Even Tulsi Gabbard, his Director of National Intelligence, has expressed frustration that Trump does not read his President’s Daily Brief, the Top Secret document that updates him on all the issues currently affecting or likely to affect his country. But he does question Gabbard and other officials on what Fox News is reporting. So, the reality is that The Donald uses Fox News as his primary information provider rather than his own intelligence agencies. And the Fox News coverage of the Israeli operation certainly highlighted the bold, daring, and courageous nature of the missions in and over Iran. When Trump claimed to have had an active role in the operation, Israel played a blinder by taking a breath, swallowing their pride, and inviting Trump to actually contribute. To buy into the brand and bask in the golden glory of being part of an audacious military operation against Iran. And he did.

Billboard in Israel after the US bombings in Iran. Credit:Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters

And I believe that option 4 helped him with option 2, drawing not just America’s but the world’s media attention away from the domestic issues the Trump administration is facing. And it’s going to profit those mentioned in option 3, as was evident by their soaring share prices the moment the successful bombing of Iran went public.

It’s also interesting how quickly events move in this day and age. I began writing this piece around 2pm on 23rd June, just to explore the theories around why America chose to bomb Iran now, with no new threat increase or intelligence assessments to drive the decision. In less than 24 hrs since I started, Marco Rubio, the American Secretary of State, angrily declared to a reporter that the intelligence assessments from the DNI weren’t relevant to the decision-making process for the operation. Trump rounded on the media for daring to contradict his social media posts that the bombing had obliterated the 3 targets, even when the Department of Defense was siding with the media on this. And now more and more credible assessments are coming out stating that Iran has retained most, if not all of their enriched uranium as they moved it in advance of the American attacks. Iran attacked a US base in Qatar with missiles but politely informed Qatar of this in advance, for which Trump thanked them while describing it as a ‘weak’ response. Trump then declared a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, then commented further that this was now peace in the Middle East. Then Iran fired missiles at Israel, breaking the truce while denying all knowledge of the breach. Then Israel sent bombers back to Iran. Trump declared he was ‘really unhappy’ with both Iran and Israel for violating the ceasefire. Then just minutes ago, referring to the ceasefire breach, a clearly enraged Donald Trump told reporters at a press conference ‘ . . . they’ve been fighting for so long and so hard, they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.’ Then Trump thundered on his social media platform ‘ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!’

And that’s all in less than 24 hrs . . .

Like I said, I’ll shed no tears for the bombing of Iranian targets. It’s long overdue for a regime who for decades, has been the world’s largest exporter of terror, death, and destruction. With Israel having removed much of the threat from Iran’s proxies of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels, Iran’s response to the American and Israeli attacks is not as clear cut as it once would have been. But there will be one, of that, at least, we can be sure.